ORLANDO, Fla. --- The stock market has bottomed, corporate earnings should bottom during the second quarter, government fiscal policies will lead to increased economic activity and consumption and investment will increase as the economy improves, according to a leading area real estate developer.
George Livingston, CIPS, chairman emeritus of NAI Realvest in Maitland, and president of Realvest Development, said there is still some bad news ahead but an economic upswing is within sight.
“The stock market has bottomed,” Livingston said. “The lows have been set. This rally has legs,” Livingston said, “and this will improve investor and consumer psychology.”
Corporate earnings should bottom during the second quarter, Livingston added. “We should see increased expenditures and hiring later this year as earnings improve,” he explained.
The economy has likewise bottomed, Livingston said.
“The last quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of this year will evidence the lows,” he said. “We will see slow improvement during the next nine months with positive growth likely in early 2010.”
Unemployment will likely worsen before it gets better, Livingston cautioned, but inflation should not be a problem, at least in the short run.
“Demand for new hires will not improve until the upturn is firmly in place,” he said. “We may see a 10 percent unemployment rate by year end, and while this will certainly stress many families, it is a lagging indicator of the national economy,” he said.
Home prices will stabilize by year end and new and existing home sales will begin to improve. Consumption and investment will increase with the economy’s upswing, and government spending will remain strong, Livingston said.
“Government fiscal policies will lead to increased economic activity and foreign trade will improve,” Livingston predicted. “Money supply will support economic growth, and interest rates should remain low throughout this year,” he said.
Livingston said inflation should not be a problem until 2010, and maybe not even then.
“The bottom line is that the longest and deepest recession since the Depression will give away to modest growth by next year,” Livingston said. “That will lead to renewed demand for commercial real estate as conditions improve. And 2010 will be even better.”
For more information please contact:
George Livingston, Chairman Emeritus, NAI Realvest 407-875-9989 glivingston@realvest.com;
Janice Paiano, Director of Marketing NAI Realvest jpaiano@realvest.com
Larry Vershel or Beth Payan, Larry Vershel Communications, 407-644-4142
About NAI Realvest
NAI Realvest, covering all of Central Florida, is a fully integrated commercial real estate operating company specializing in brokerage, development, investment, leasing and management, consulting and research services in the U.S. and worldwide. NAI Global is an international commercial real estate network with over 325 offices spanning the globe. Since 1978, clients have built businesses on the power of NAI Global’s expanding network. Extensive services include multi-site acquisitions and dispositions, sublease, tenant representation, lease administration and audit, investment services, due diligence and related consulting and advisory services. To learn more, visit www.nairealvest.com